Last week, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 dropped 2.6% each, with the Nifty closing at 22,904—slipping below the 23,000 mark amid a global sell-off triggered by US President Trump’s tariff measures and renewed fears of an economic slowdown.
The broader markets also came under pressure, as the Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 declined by 2% and 2.6%, respectively.
IT stocks led the decline, plunging 9% on concerns of reduced US tech spending, while the Nifty Metal index tumbled 7.5% on fears of global trade disruptions. The auto and pharma sectors also registered losses of 3% each.
“Nifty broke below the crucial support of 23,141 and went down to as low as 22,857. From the recent swing high of 23,869, Nifty has registered a fall of more than 1,000 points. The next support for Nifty is seen near 22,700, where the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 21,964 to 23,869 is placed. On the higher side, the previous support of 23,140 will now act as a resistance,” said Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities.
This week, Indian markets are expected to remain volatile amid concerns over the impact of US reciprocal tariffs and potential announcements of further sector-specific tariffs during the week.
It should be noted that the upcoming week will have only four trading sessions, as April 10 will be a market holiday on account of Mahavir Jayanti. Factors likely to impact market movement when trading resumes are as follows:
1) US Tariff Impact
Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, markets are grappling with heightened uncertainty, which appears set to persist. The trade war initiated by Trump—coupled with expected retaliatory tariffs from China, the EU, and other key partners—is likely to prolong volatility and deepen investor unease.
2) RBI MPC Meeting Outcome
On the domestic front, the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on April 9 will be a key focus, with the Street expecting a 25 bps rate cut to kick off the financial year 2026.
3) FOMC Minutes
The minutes of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on the night of Wednesday, April 9, offering key insights into the Fed's outlook on interest rates, inflation, and the overall economic condition.
4) Key Macroeconomic Data
The U.S. CPI and Core CPI data are scheduled for release on Thursday, April 10, with month-on-month expectations of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively—both key indicators influencing Fed policy.
India’s March CPI data is due on Friday, April 11, estimated at 3.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, alongside Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures, forecast at 3.1% and 4.6% YoY, respectively.
5) Q4 Earnings Season
The fourth-quarter earnings season begins this week, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) set to report its results on April 10. The market is likely to react sharply to the first earnings report of the season.
6) Technical Indicators
“Technically, the Nifty has broken below all major price and moving average supports, indicating potential for further downside. The immediate support lies at 22,600, while a decisive breach could open the door towards 22,100. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the 23,100–23,400 zone,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking.
He added, “In the current setup, traders are advised to maintain a ‘sell on rise’ strategy for the index until a clear reversal or a retest of the 22,100 support level occurs. As the earnings season begins, stock-specific action is likely to dominate, presenting opportunities on both the long and short sides.”
7) FII/DII Activity
On Friday, both foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers. FIIs offloaded equities worth Rs 3,483.98 crore, while DIIs sold shares worth Rs 1,720.32 crore.
8) Currency Moves
The Indian rupee closed unchanged despite the Reserve Bank of India’s announcement of a $10 billion USDINR swap on Friday. The currency remains under pressure due to foreign portfolio outflows and geopolitical concerns.
The overall outlook for the rupee continues to be bearish.
9) Crude Prices
Oil prices collapsed for the second straight day on Friday. Brent crude futures plunged more than 6%, touching a four-year low near $62 a barrel, now down 26% year-on-year.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The broader markets also came under pressure, as the Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 declined by 2% and 2.6%, respectively.
IT stocks led the decline, plunging 9% on concerns of reduced US tech spending, while the Nifty Metal index tumbled 7.5% on fears of global trade disruptions. The auto and pharma sectors also registered losses of 3% each.
“Nifty broke below the crucial support of 23,141 and went down to as low as 22,857. From the recent swing high of 23,869, Nifty has registered a fall of more than 1,000 points. The next support for Nifty is seen near 22,700, where the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 21,964 to 23,869 is placed. On the higher side, the previous support of 23,140 will now act as a resistance,” said Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities.
This week, Indian markets are expected to remain volatile amid concerns over the impact of US reciprocal tariffs and potential announcements of further sector-specific tariffs during the week.
It should be noted that the upcoming week will have only four trading sessions, as April 10 will be a market holiday on account of Mahavir Jayanti. Factors likely to impact market movement when trading resumes are as follows:
1) US Tariff Impact
Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, markets are grappling with heightened uncertainty, which appears set to persist. The trade war initiated by Trump—coupled with expected retaliatory tariffs from China, the EU, and other key partners—is likely to prolong volatility and deepen investor unease.
2) RBI MPC Meeting Outcome
On the domestic front, the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on April 9 will be a key focus, with the Street expecting a 25 bps rate cut to kick off the financial year 2026.
3) FOMC Minutes
The minutes of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on the night of Wednesday, April 9, offering key insights into the Fed's outlook on interest rates, inflation, and the overall economic condition.
4) Key Macroeconomic Data
The U.S. CPI and Core CPI data are scheduled for release on Thursday, April 10, with month-on-month expectations of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively—both key indicators influencing Fed policy.
India’s March CPI data is due on Friday, April 11, estimated at 3.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, alongside Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures, forecast at 3.1% and 4.6% YoY, respectively.
5) Q4 Earnings Season
The fourth-quarter earnings season begins this week, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) set to report its results on April 10. The market is likely to react sharply to the first earnings report of the season.
6) Technical Indicators
“Technically, the Nifty has broken below all major price and moving average supports, indicating potential for further downside. The immediate support lies at 22,600, while a decisive breach could open the door towards 22,100. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the 23,100–23,400 zone,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking.
He added, “In the current setup, traders are advised to maintain a ‘sell on rise’ strategy for the index until a clear reversal or a retest of the 22,100 support level occurs. As the earnings season begins, stock-specific action is likely to dominate, presenting opportunities on both the long and short sides.”
7) FII/DII Activity
On Friday, both foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers. FIIs offloaded equities worth Rs 3,483.98 crore, while DIIs sold shares worth Rs 1,720.32 crore.
8) Currency Moves
The Indian rupee closed unchanged despite the Reserve Bank of India’s announcement of a $10 billion USDINR swap on Friday. The currency remains under pressure due to foreign portfolio outflows and geopolitical concerns.
The overall outlook for the rupee continues to be bearish.
9) Crude Prices
Oil prices collapsed for the second straight day on Friday. Brent crude futures plunged more than 6%, touching a four-year low near $62 a barrel, now down 26% year-on-year.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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