Relations between India and Canada have reached a new low, with both nations expelling diplomats, including their respective envoys. Canada has gone so far as to declare the Indian High Commissioner virtually “wanted” in connection with criminal investigations, accusing Indian officials of “homicide, extortion, and violent acts.” India has responded in kind, creating a tit-for-tat situation that reflects poorly on both democracies. This downward spiral sharply contrasts the previously cordial ties, which have been significantly shaped by trade and the large Indian immigrant community in Canada. India is the single largest source of foreign students for Canadian universities and other institutions.
Tensions escalated after the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in June 2023. India identified him as a Khalistani terrorist. On the contrary, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suggested that Indian diplomats were involved in the killing, a claim India vehemently denies. Trudeau has since stated that evidence of the diplomats’ involvement was shared with India, a claim India has rejected. The frosty relations were evident during the G-20 summit in September 2023, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi made no effort to hide his displeasure with Trudeau while welcoming him. The diplomatic crisis seems intertwined with Trudeau’s domestic political challenges. With his approval ratings as low as 25% and elections less than a year away, some suspect his hardline stance against India may be an attempt to rally support. However, the political gains from this strategy seem questionable. Although Canada is home to a large Sikh diaspora, estimated at 7.7 lakh, they represent only about 4% of voters. True, at one point, Trudeau had four Sikhs in his Cabinet, which prompted him to ask how many Sikhs were Union ministers in India. However, his recent electoral losses and declining popularity suggest that his new-found stridency may not improve his chances for another term.
Needless to say, diplomatic prudence is now crucial. Both nations need to lower the rhetoric and let diplomacy take its course. If Canadian police have evidence, as claimed, they should pursue the investigation under applicable laws while respecting international diplomatic immunity. Reports indicate that the national security advisors of India and Canada are set to meet in Singapore this weekend, presenting an opportunity to address the differences and restore cooperation to the pre-assassination level. Ultimately, both countries must recognise that their future relationship is more important than their past conflicts.
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