Cash, caste, crop: Maha results will hinge on several factors

MUMBAI: Five months ago, the Mahayuti alliance had to settle for a dismal score of 17 of the state's 48 LS seats, its poor tally dragging down the BJP 's numbers at the Centre and leaving the opposition confident of a repeat in the assembly polls. Yet, just a week ago, BJP made a comeback by winning an unprecedented third term in the Haryana polls, trumping exit poll forecasts.

It's at this juncture that the Election Commission of India has announced a single-phase poll for Maharashtra on Nov 20, with the Nanded bypoll also scheduled on the same day. Counting will take place on November 23. The model code of conduct for parties and candidates comes into force immediately, which ensures that no new schemes or grants can be announced by ministers.

This election is a battle for survival. It may finally decide - which is the real Shiv Sena and NCP . Congress which was in fourth position in the last assembly poll, is hoping its resurgence in the parliamentary polls will continue. For BJP which plunged to 9 seats in the LS polls, a win is crucial.

The run-up to the polls saw the most audacious avalanche of sops in the state's history. The Mahayuti govt is hoping its Rs 1,500 monthly stipend to underprivileged women - the Mukhya Mantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana - will be a game-changer, like the Ladli Behna Yojana was in MP. The scheme, which costs Rs 46,000 crore a year and puts a huge strain on finances, is part of an array of freebies offered.

However, the revdi gamble has worked in some states but not in others. For instance, the BRS was crushed in Telangana's polls last year despite offering a host of schemes.

The question is how the freebies will square off against issues confronting the state: farmer distress over agricultural pricing, unemployment, price rise. The crash in soyabean prices and the export ban on onions had cost the Mahayuti alliance in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Nashik in the LS polls. The Centre has stepped in to lift the export ban and clear soyabean procurement at the minimum support price.

The caste cauldron in the state is also on the boil and balancing delicate community equations is a major challenge. The Maratha quota unrest which cost the Mahayuti alliance during the Lok Sabha polls, is still simmering. The repercussion is a counter-consolidation by OBCs, the BJP's traditional voters.

Meanwhile the dhangar (shepherd) community is demanding inclusion in the ST quota which has higher reservation than the nomadic tribe quota. The Scheduled Tribes are strongly against this.

Also, will the Muslim and Dalits which consolidated against the Mahayuti in the LS polls, retain the same stand?

For BJP retaining power after a bitter break with the Thackeray-led Sena is a prestige issue. The alliance with Ajit Pawar's NCP who it had relentlessly targeted over the irrigation scam, has upset a section of its core voters. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis who was once the undisputed head of BJP in the state, is under pressure to deliver after the Lok Sabha debacle.

Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray will battle to prove who heads the real Shiv Sena. A similar war will rage between the NCPs of Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar. In both cases, rebels have managed to wrest the party's name & symbol. It's unclear how long the parent party will benefit from public sympathy. The party that loses out could face an exodus and political oblivion.

In the LS polls, the Shiv Sena won 7 of 15 seats while Thackeray's party got 9 out of 21 seats. NCP (SP) had won 8 out of 10 seats including its citadel, Baramati, while NCP of Ajit Pawar won a single seat from the 4 it contested.

Congress made the largest gains in the LS in the state, rising from a single seat to 13. It replaced BJP as the single largest party in the state.

For both alliances, working as a cohesive unit is key. The Mahayuti alliance is in a prestige war of one-upmanship over the Ladki Bahin scheme while the MVA alliance is already bickering over the CM's post. Both alliances will have to manage aspirations of ticket seekers as parties sit together for talks.

Whichever side wins will have to face the challenge of managing the state's precarious financial condition. Debt is upward of Rs 7.8 lakh crore. The fiscal deficit is expected to be Rs 2 lakh crore, much beyond the norm. And dropping schemes after winning the poll will not be an easy task.